Morgan Stanley (MS) DCF Valuation
Morgan Stanley DCF: $14B TTM FCF, $200B net debt, 6% growth on WM + IB.
Financials · Founded 1935 · Beta 1.30
Morgan Stanley
Current price: $118.40 · Market cap ≈ $189.4B
Morgan Stanley's $14B TTM FCF is supported by IB + Wealth Management (now >50% of revenue). The $200B net debt is typical for an investment bank. Long-term thesis depends on WM market expansion + IB cycle.
DCF Valuation Inputs
High-growth phase
Decay/growth normalization
Perpetual (≤ WACC)
Must be > terminal growth
in millions
Enterprise Value
$248M
Equity Value
$48M
Per Share
$0
Upside / (Downside)
-100.0%
PV of explicit FCF
$63M
Terminal value
$284M
PV of terminal
$185M
Terminal % of EV
74.5%
| Year | Growth | FCF ($M) | Discount Factor | PV ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | base | $14 | 1.000 | — |
| 1 | 6.0% | $15 | 0.917 | $14 |
| 2 | 5.0% | $16 | 0.842 | $13 |
| 3 | 5.0% | $16 | 0.772 | $13 |
| 4 | 5.0% | $17 | 0.708 | $12 |
| 5 | 5.0% | $18 | 0.650 | $12 |
| Terminal | perpetual | — | — | $185 |
Discount factor = 1 / (1 + WACC)ⁿ. Terminal value computed using the Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF_N × (1 + g) / (WACC − g), then discounted back to present.
| g ＼ WACC | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 11.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5% | $0 | $0 | $0 | -$0 | -$0 |
| 2.0% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | -$0 |
| 2.5% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | -$0 |
| 3.0% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | -$0 |
| 3.5% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Highlighted cell is your current WACC × terminal-growth assumption. Cells beyond WACC ≤ g are undefined (Gordon Growth fails).
MS DCF: At Default Assumptions
| Item | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $118.40 | Market |
| Intrinsic value (per share) | $0.03 | DCF model output |
| Upside / (Downside) | -100.0% | vs current price |
| Enterprise value | $$248M | PV of explicit FCF + terminal |
| Equity value | $$48M | EV − net debt |
| Key fact | Wealth Management AUM: ~$6.5T | |
Numbers reflect TTM fundamentals + default DCF assumptions (9.0% WACC, 2.5% terminal growth, 6% Year-1 growth, 5% Years 2+). Use the calculator above to run your own scenario.
MS Sources & References
- SEC EDGAR: latest 10-K filing, 10-Q filings, and proxy statement for Morgan Stanley (MS).
- Yahoo Finance: real-time price snapshot, analyst consensus growth estimates, and 52-week range.
- S&P Capital IQ: WACC build (cost of equity via CAPM + after-tax cost of debt).
- Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED): risk-free rate for CAPM, sector beta benchmarks.
- Damodaran Online (NYU): Financials sector WACC and beta benchmarks for cross-validation.
DCF models for other large-caps
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Author
Maya Chen, CFA
Chartered Financial Analyst
Independently reviewed
Dr. Aaron Pak, PhD
Doctor of Kinesiology & Public Health
Last reviewed: August 12, 2026 · Next scheduled review: quarterly
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Cross-checked against authoritative formulas (IRS, NIST, ACM) and updated for 2025/2026 tax years and rates.
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