Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM) DCF Valuation
ExxonMobil DCF: $33B TTM FCF, $40B net debt, 3% near-term growth (oil-price sensitive).
Energy · Founded 1999 (merger) · Beta 0.95
Exxon Mobil Corporation
Current price: $117.40 · Market cap ≈ $516.6B
ExxonMobil's $33B TTM FCF is highly sensitive to crude prices. The $40B net debt is modest for a $500B+ market cap integrated major. Buybacks (~$20B/year) plus dividend ($9B) return >70% of FCF to shareholders. Long-term thesis depends on Permian/Guyana production growth + low-carbon investments.
DCF Valuation Inputs
High-growth phase
Decay/growth normalization
Perpetual (≤ WACC)
Must be > terminal growth
in millions
Enterprise Value
$461M
Equity Value
$421M
Per Share
$0
Upside / (Downside)
-100.0%
PV of explicit FCF
$137M
Terminal value
$498M
PV of terminal
$324M
Terminal % of EV
70.2%
| Year | Growth | FCF ($M) | Discount Factor | PV ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | base | $33 | 1.000 | — |
| 1 | 3.0% | $34 | 0.917 | $31 |
| 2 | 2.0% | $35 | 0.842 | $29 |
| 3 | 2.0% | $35 | 0.772 | $27 |
| 4 | 2.0% | $36 | 0.708 | $26 |
| 5 | 2.0% | $37 | 0.650 | $24 |
| Terminal | perpetual | — | — | $324 |
Discount factor = 1 / (1 + WACC)ⁿ. Terminal value computed using the Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF_N × (1 + g) / (WACC − g), then discounted back to present.
| g ＼ WACC | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% | 11.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0.5% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 1.0% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 1.5% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 2.0% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 2.5% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Highlighted cell is your current WACC × terminal-growth assumption. Cells beyond WACC ≤ g are undefined (Gordon Growth fails).
XOM DCF: At Default Assumptions
| Item | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $117.40 | Market |
| Intrinsic value (per share) | $0.10 | DCF model output |
| Upside / (Downside) | -99.9% | vs current price |
| Enterprise value | $$461M | PV of explicit FCF + terminal |
| Equity value | $$421M | EV − net debt |
| Key fact | Capital return: ~$30B/year (buybacks + dividend) | |
Numbers reflect TTM fundamentals + default DCF assumptions (9.0% WACC, 1.5% terminal growth, 3% Year-1 growth, 2% Years 2+). Use the calculator above to run your own scenario.
XOM Sources & References
- SEC EDGAR: latest 10-K filing, 10-Q filings, and proxy statement for Exxon Mobil Corporation (XOM).
- Yahoo Finance: real-time price snapshot, analyst consensus growth estimates, and 52-week range.
- S&P Capital IQ: WACC build (cost of equity via CAPM + after-tax cost of debt).
- Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED): risk-free rate for CAPM, sector beta benchmarks.
- Damodaran Online (NYU): Energy sector WACC and beta benchmarks for cross-validation.
DCF models for other large-caps
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Author
Maya Chen, CFA
Chartered Financial Analyst
Independently reviewed
Dr. Aaron Pak, PhD
Doctor of Kinesiology & Public Health
Last reviewed: August 12, 2026 · Next scheduled review: quarterly
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Cross-checked against authoritative formulas (IRS, NIST, ACM) and updated for 2025/2026 tax years and rates.
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