Eli Lilly and Company (LLY) DCF Valuation
Eli Lilly DCF: $8.5B TTM FCF, 30% near-term growth on GLP-1 (Mounjaro/Zepbound).
Healthcare · Founded 1876 · Beta 0.40
Eli Lilly and Company
Current price: $762.40 · Market cap ≈ $724.3B
Eli Lilly's $8.5B TTM FCF is growing at 50%+ as GLP-1 production ramps (Mounjaro, Zepbound). The $25B net debt is being repaid quickly. Long-term growth depends on GLP-1 franchise durability and the pipeline ramp of retatrutide (next-gen obesity drug). Low beta (0.40) reflects healthcare defensive nature despite high growth.
DCF Valuation Inputs
High-growth phase
Decay/growth normalization
Perpetual (≤ WACC)
Must be > terminal growth
in millions
Enterprise Value
$390M
Equity Value
$365M
Per Share
$0
Upside / (Downside)
-100.0%
PV of explicit FCF
$61M
Terminal value
$495M
PV of terminal
$329M
Terminal % of EV
84.4%
| Year | Growth | FCF ($M) | Discount Factor | PV ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | base | $9 | 1.000 | — |
| 1 | 30.0% | $11 | 0.922 | $10 |
| 2 | 18.0% | $13 | 0.849 | $11 |
| 3 | 18.0% | $15 | 0.783 | $12 |
| 4 | 18.0% | $18 | 0.722 | $13 |
| 5 | 18.0% | $21 | 0.665 | $14 |
| Terminal | perpetual | — | — | $329 |
Discount factor = 1 / (1 + WACC)ⁿ. Terminal value computed using the Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF_N × (1 + g) / (WACC − g), then discounted back to present.
| g ＼ WACC | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 10.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3.0% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 3.5% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 4.0% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 4.5% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 5.0% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Highlighted cell is your current WACC × terminal-growth assumption. Cells beyond WACC ≤ g are undefined (Gordon Growth fails).
LLY DCF: At Default Assumptions
| Item | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $762.40 | Market |
| Intrinsic value (per share) | $0.38 | DCF model output |
| Upside / (Downside) | -99.9% | vs current price |
| Enterprise value | $$390M | PV of explicit FCF + terminal |
| Equity value | $$365M | EV − net debt |
| Key fact | GLP-1 franchise: Mounjaro + Zepbound leading the obesity drug market | |
Numbers reflect TTM fundamentals + default DCF assumptions (8.5% WACC, 4.0% terminal growth, 30% Year-1 growth, 18% Years 2+). Use the calculator above to run your own scenario.
LLY Sources & References
- SEC EDGAR: latest 10-K filing, 10-Q filings, and proxy statement for Eli Lilly and Company (LLY).
- Yahoo Finance: real-time price snapshot, analyst consensus growth estimates, and 52-week range.
- S&P Capital IQ: WACC build (cost of equity via CAPM + after-tax cost of debt).
- Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED): risk-free rate for CAPM, sector beta benchmarks.
- Damodaran Online (NYU): Healthcare sector WACC and beta benchmarks for cross-validation.
DCF models for other large-caps
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Author
Maya Chen, CFA
Chartered Financial Analyst
Independently reviewed
Dr. Aaron Pak, PhD
Doctor of Kinesiology & Public Health
Last reviewed: August 12, 2026 · Next scheduled review: quarterly
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Cross-checked against authoritative formulas (IRS, NIST, ACM) and updated for 2025/2026 tax years and rates.
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