Philip Morris International Inc. (PM) DCF Valuation
Philip Morris DCF: $9.2B TTM FCF, $24B net debt, dividend king, 6% growth on IQOS.
Consumer Staples · Founded 2008 (spin-off) · Beta 0.65
Philip Morris International Inc.
Current price: $132.80 · Market cap ≈ $205.8B
Philip Morris's $9.2B TTM FCF benefits from the IQOS heated-tobacco expansion. The $24B net debt is moderate. Dividend king. Long-term thesis depends on IQOS adoption + reduced-risk product pipeline.
DCF Valuation Inputs
High-growth phase
Decay/growth normalization
Perpetual (≤ WACC)
Must be > terminal growth
in millions
Enterprise Value
$193M
Equity Value
$169M
Per Share
$0
Upside / (Downside)
-100.0%
PV of explicit FCF
$43M
Terminal value
$221M
PV of terminal
$150M
Terminal % of EV
77.9%
| Year | Growth | FCF ($M) | Discount Factor | PV ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | base | $9 | 1.000 | — |
| 1 | 6.0% | $10 | 0.926 | $9 |
| 2 | 5.0% | $10 | 0.857 | $9 |
| 3 | 5.0% | $11 | 0.794 | $9 |
| 4 | 5.0% | $11 | 0.735 | $8 |
| 5 | 5.0% | $12 | 0.681 | $8 |
| Terminal | perpetual | — | — | $150 |
Discount factor = 1 / (1 + WACC)ⁿ. Terminal value computed using the Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF_N × (1 + g) / (WACC − g), then discounted back to present.
| g ＼ WACC | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 2.0% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 2.5% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 3.0% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 3.5% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Highlighted cell is your current WACC × terminal-growth assumption. Cells beyond WACC ≤ g are undefined (Gordon Growth fails).
PM DCF: At Default Assumptions
| Item | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $132.80 | Market |
| Intrinsic value (per share) | $0.11 | DCF model output |
| Upside / (Downside) | -99.9% | vs current price |
| Enterprise value | $$193M | PV of explicit FCF + terminal |
| Equity value | $$169M | EV − net debt |
| Key fact | IQOS users: 30M+ globally | |
Numbers reflect TTM fundamentals + default DCF assumptions (8.0% WACC, 2.5% terminal growth, 6% Year-1 growth, 5% Years 2+). Use the calculator above to run your own scenario.
PM Sources & References
- SEC EDGAR: latest 10-K filing, 10-Q filings, and proxy statement for Philip Morris International Inc. (PM).
- Yahoo Finance: real-time price snapshot, analyst consensus growth estimates, and 52-week range.
- S&P Capital IQ: WACC build (cost of equity via CAPM + after-tax cost of debt).
- Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED): risk-free rate for CAPM, sector beta benchmarks.
- Damodaran Online (NYU): Consumer Staples sector WACC and beta benchmarks for cross-validation.
DCF models for other large-caps
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Author
Maya Chen, CFA
Chartered Financial Analyst
Independently reviewed
Dr. Aaron Pak, PhD
Doctor of Kinesiology & Public Health
Last reviewed: August 12, 2026 · Next scheduled review: quarterly
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Cross-checked against authoritative formulas (IRS, NIST, ACM) and updated for 2025/2026 tax years and rates.
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