Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) DCF Valuation
Costco DCF: $9.5B TTM FCF, $4B annual membership-fee profit, 10% growth.
Consumer Staples · Founded 1983 · Beta 0.80
Costco Wholesale Corporation
Current price: $962.10 · Market cap ≈ $427.2B
Costco's $9.5B TTM FCF benefits from the membership-fee model (~$4B/year in pure profit) and relentless member loyalty. Beta of 0.80 reflects defensive consumer-staples nature. Premium valuation is justified by consistent same-store-sales growth and the pricing-power moat.
DCF Valuation Inputs
High-growth phase
Decay/growth normalization
Perpetual (≤ WACC)
Must be > terminal growth
in millions
Enterprise Value
$276M
Equity Value
$285M
Per Share
$0
Upside / (Downside)
-100.0%
PV of explicit FCF
$49M
Terminal value
$325M
PV of terminal
$227M
Terminal % of EV
82.2%
| Year | Growth | FCF ($M) | Discount Factor | PV ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | base | $10 | 1.000 | — |
| 1 | 10.0% | $10 | 0.930 | $10 |
| 2 | 8.0% | $11 | 0.865 | $10 |
| 3 | 8.0% | $12 | 0.805 | $10 |
| 4 | 8.0% | $13 | 0.749 | $10 |
| 5 | 8.0% | $14 | 0.697 | $10 |
| Terminal | perpetual | — | — | $227 |
Discount factor = 1 / (1 + WACC)ⁿ. Terminal value computed using the Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF_N × (1 + g) / (WACC − g), then discounted back to present.
| g ＼ WACC | 5.5% | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 9.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 2.5% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 3.0% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 3.5% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 4.0% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Highlighted cell is your current WACC × terminal-growth assumption. Cells beyond WACC ≤ g are undefined (Gordon Growth fails).
COST DCF: At Default Assumptions
| Item | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $962.10 | Market |
| Intrinsic value (per share) | $0.64 | DCF model output |
| Upside / (Downside) | -99.9% | vs current price |
| Enterprise value | $$276M | PV of explicit FCF + terminal |
| Equity value | $$285M | EV − net debt |
| Key fact | Membership fee profit: ~$4B/year | |
Numbers reflect TTM fundamentals + default DCF assumptions (7.5% WACC, 3.0% terminal growth, 10% Year-1 growth, 8% Years 2+). Use the calculator above to run your own scenario.
COST Sources & References
- SEC EDGAR: latest 10-K filing, 10-Q filings, and proxy statement for Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST).
- Yahoo Finance: real-time price snapshot, analyst consensus growth estimates, and 52-week range.
- S&P Capital IQ: WACC build (cost of equity via CAPM + after-tax cost of debt).
- Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED): risk-free rate for CAPM, sector beta benchmarks.
- Damodaran Online (NYU): Consumer Staples sector WACC and beta benchmarks for cross-validation.
DCF models for other large-caps
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Author
Maya Chen, CFA
Chartered Financial Analyst
Independently reviewed
Dr. Aaron Pak, PhD
Doctor of Kinesiology & Public Health
Last reviewed: August 12, 2026 · Next scheduled review: quarterly
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Cross-checked against authoritative formulas (IRS, NIST, ACM) and updated for 2025/2026 tax years and rates.
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