Netflix Inc. (NFLX) DCF Valuation
Netflix DCF: $6.8B TTM FCF, 12% near-term growth on ad-tier + ARPU expansion.
Communication Services · Founded 1997 (incorporated) / 2002 (IPO) · Beta 1.25
Netflix Inc.
Current price: $712.40 · Market cap ≈ $306.3B
Netflix's $6.8B TTM FCF has rebounded sharply from the 2022 subscriber crisis. The $5.5B net cash position supports content investment and buybacks. Ad-supported tier (Basic with Ads) and password-sharing crackdown drove ARPU expansion. Long-term growth depends on content quality and ad-tier uptake.
DCF Valuation Inputs
High-growth phase
Decay/growth normalization
Perpetual (≤ WACC)
Must be > terminal growth
in millions
Enterprise Value
$175M
Equity Value
$180M
Per Share
$0
Upside / (Downside)
-100.0%
PV of explicit FCF
$36M
Terminal value
$209M
PV of terminal
$139M
Terminal % of EV
79.4%
| Year | Growth | FCF ($M) | Discount Factor | PV ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | base | $7 | 1.000 | — |
| 1 | 12.0% | $8 | 0.922 | $7 |
| 2 | 10.0% | $8 | 0.849 | $7 |
| 3 | 10.0% | $9 | 0.783 | $7 |
| 4 | 10.0% | $10 | 0.722 | $7 |
| 5 | 10.0% | $11 | 0.665 | $7 |
| Terminal | perpetual | — | — | $139 |
Discount factor = 1 / (1 + WACC)ⁿ. Terminal value computed using the Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF_N × (1 + g) / (WACC − g), then discounted back to present.
| g ＼ WACC | 6.5% | 7.5% | 8.5% | 9.5% | 10.5% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2.0% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 2.5% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 3.0% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 3.5% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 4.0% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Highlighted cell is your current WACC × terminal-growth assumption. Cells beyond WACC ≤ g are undefined (Gordon Growth fails).
NFLX DCF: At Default Assumptions
| Item | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $712.40 | Market |
| Intrinsic value (per share) | $0.42 | DCF model output |
| Upside / (Downside) | -99.9% | vs current price |
| Enterprise value | $$175M | PV of explicit FCF + terminal |
| Equity value | $$180M | EV − net debt |
| Key fact | Paid memberships: 280M+ | |
Numbers reflect TTM fundamentals + default DCF assumptions (8.5% WACC, 3.0% terminal growth, 12% Year-1 growth, 10% Years 2+). Use the calculator above to run your own scenario.
NFLX Sources & References
- SEC EDGAR: latest 10-K filing, 10-Q filings, and proxy statement for Netflix Inc. (NFLX).
- Yahoo Finance: real-time price snapshot, analyst consensus growth estimates, and 52-week range.
- S&P Capital IQ: WACC build (cost of equity via CAPM + after-tax cost of debt).
- Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED): risk-free rate for CAPM, sector beta benchmarks.
- Damodaran Online (NYU): Communication Services sector WACC and beta benchmarks for cross-validation.
DCF models for other large-caps
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Author
Maya Chen, CFA
Chartered Financial Analyst
Independently reviewed
Dr. Aaron Pak, PhD
Doctor of Kinesiology & Public Health
Last reviewed: August 12, 2026 · Next scheduled review: quarterly
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Cross-checked against authoritative formulas (IRS, NIST, ACM) and updated for 2025/2026 tax years and rates.
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