SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY) DCF Valuation
SPY DCF: $6.4B TTM distributions, $580/share, S&P 500 proxy at 0.09% expense ratio.
ETF valuation methodology
TTM distributions as fund cash-flow proxy. Per-share fair value approximates long-run S&P 500 P/E × normalized earnings.
ETF — Broad Market · Founded 1993 · Beta 1.00
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust
Current price: $580.40 · Market cap ≈ $563.0B
SPY holds all 500 S&P 500 constituents weighted by market cap. TTM distributions ~$6.6B (≈ 1.15% yield, mostly dividends from underlying stocks). NAV tracks index. DCF here uses total distributions as the 'fund cash flow'; per-share fair value converges to long-run S&P 500 earnings yield (4.5-6%) + growth (5-7%).
DCF Valuation Inputs
High-growth phase
Decay/growth normalization
Perpetual (≤ WACC)
Must be > terminal growth
in millions
Enterprise Value
$142M
Equity Value
$142M
Per Share
$0
Upside / (Downside)
-100.0%
PV of explicit FCF
$31M
Terminal value
$163M
PV of terminal
$111M
Terminal % of EV
78.2%
| Year | Growth | FCF ($M) | Discount Factor | PV ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | base | $6 | 1.000 | — |
| 1 | 8.0% | $7 | 0.926 | $6 |
| 2 | 6.0% | $7 | 0.857 | $6 |
| 3 | 6.0% | $8 | 0.794 | $6 |
| 4 | 6.0% | $8 | 0.735 | $6 |
| 5 | 6.0% | $9 | 0.681 | $6 |
| Terminal | perpetual | — | — | $111 |
Discount factor = 1 / (1 + WACC)ⁿ. Terminal value computed using the Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF_N × (1 + g) / (WACC − g), then discounted back to present.
| g ＼ WACC | 6.0% | 7.0% | 8.0% | 9.0% | 10.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.5% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 2.0% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 2.5% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 3.0% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
| 3.5% | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 |
Highlighted cell is your current WACC × terminal-growth assumption. Cells beyond WACC ≤ g are undefined (Gordon Growth fails).
SPY DCF: At Default Assumptions
| Item | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $580.40 | Market |
| Intrinsic value (per share) | $0.15 | DCF model output |
| Upside / (Downside) | -100.0% | vs current price |
| Enterprise value | $$142M | PV of explicit FCF + terminal |
| Equity value | $$142M | EV − net debt |
| Key fact | Largest ETF in the world — $600B+ AUM | |
Numbers reflect TTM fundamentals + default DCF assumptions (8.0% WACC, 2.5% terminal growth, 8% Year-1 growth, 6% Years 2+). Use the calculator above to run your own scenario.
SPY Sources & References
- SEC EDGAR: latest 10-K filing, 10-Q filings, and proxy statement for SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (SPY).
- Yahoo Finance: real-time price snapshot, analyst consensus growth estimates, and 52-week range.
- S&P Capital IQ: WACC build (cost of equity via CAPM + after-tax cost of debt).
- Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED): risk-free rate for CAPM, sector beta benchmarks.
- Damodaran Online (NYU): ETF — Broad Market sector WACC and beta benchmarks for cross-validation.
DCF models for other large-caps
Editorial standards
Every CalcCentral calculator is authored by a credentialed subject-matter expert and independently reviewed before publication. Our editorial policy follows the same E-E-A-T guidelines used by Google to evaluate YMYL (your-money-or-your-life) pages.
Author
Maya Chen, CFA
Chartered Financial Analyst
Independently reviewed
Dr. Aaron Pak, PhD
Doctor of Kinesiology & Public Health
Last reviewed: August 12, 2026 · Next scheduled review: quarterly
Verified accuracy
Cross-checked against authoritative formulas (IRS, NIST, ACM) and updated for 2025/2026 tax years and rates.
Instant results
No server roundtrip. All math runs in your browser so results appear the moment you finish typing.
Your data stays private
We never collect, store, or transmit your inputs. Every calculation runs locally in your browser.
Learn as you calculate
Each calculator includes the formula, plain-English explanation, and FAQs so you understand the result.
Estimates only. Calculator results are for educational and planning purposes — not professional advice. For binding decisions on taxes, investments, health, or legal matters, consult a qualified professional.
Related Articles
DCF Valuation Calculator
Generic DCF model — adjust any assumption and run sensitivity analysis.
Investment Calculator
Compound returns, recurring contributions, and time-weighted growth on any lump-sum.
Dividend Reinvestment Calculator
Project year-by-year portfolio growth from monthly contributions and reinvested dividends.