SPDR Gold Shares (GLD) DCF Valuation
GLD valuation: physical gold proxy at $245/share, no cash flows, $100B+ AUM.
ETF valuation methodology
No cash flow — valuation is long-run gold price growth assumption (real + inflation). DCF here is illustrative.
ETF — Commodities · Founded 2004 · Beta 0.10
SPDR Gold Shares
Current price: $245.60 · Market cap ≈ $78.6B
GLD holds physical gold bullion; price tracks spot gold. No cash flow (gold doesn't pay dividends). DCF here uses long-run gold price growth assumption (4-6% real). Inflation hedge and crisis insurance.
DCF Valuation Inputs
High-growth phase
Decay/growth normalization
Perpetual (≤ WACC)
Must be > terminal growth
in millions
Enterprise Value
$0M
Equity Value
$0M
Per Share
$0
Upside / (Downside)
-100.0%
PV of explicit FCF
$0M
Terminal value
$0M
PV of terminal
$0M
Terminal % of EV
NaN%
| Year | Growth | FCF ($M) | Discount Factor | PV ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | base | $0 | 1.000 | — |
| 1 | 6.0% | $0 | 0.952 | $0 |
| 2 | 4.0% | $0 | 0.907 | $0 |
| 3 | 4.0% | $0 | 0.864 | $0 |
| 4 | 4.0% | $0 | 0.823 | $0 |
| 5 | 4.0% | $0 | 0.784 | $0 |
| Terminal | perpetual | — | — | $0 |
Discount factor = 1 / (1 + WACC)ⁿ. Terminal value computed using the Gordon Growth Model: TV = FCF_N × (1 + g) / (WACC − g), then discounted back to present.
| g ＼ WACC | 3.0% | 4.0% | 5.0% | 6.0% | 7.0% |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 1.5% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 2.5% | — | — | — | — | — |
| 3.0% | — | — | — | — | — |
Highlighted cell is your current WACC × terminal-growth assumption. Cells beyond WACC ≤ g are undefined (Gordon Growth fails).
GLD DCF: At Default Assumptions
| Item | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Current price | $245.60 | Market |
| Intrinsic value (per share) | $0.00 | DCF model output |
| Upside / (Downside) | -100.0% | vs current price |
| Enterprise value | $$0M | PV of explicit FCF + terminal |
| Equity value | $$0M | EV − net debt |
| Key fact | Backed by physical gold in London vaults — largest gold ETF | |
Numbers reflect TTM fundamentals + default DCF assumptions (5.0% WACC, 2.0% terminal growth, 6% Year-1 growth, 4% Years 2+). Use the calculator above to run your own scenario.
GLD Sources & References
- SEC EDGAR: latest 10-K filing, 10-Q filings, and proxy statement for SPDR Gold Shares (GLD).
- Yahoo Finance: real-time price snapshot, analyst consensus growth estimates, and 52-week range.
- S&P Capital IQ: WACC build (cost of equity via CAPM + after-tax cost of debt).
- Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED): risk-free rate for CAPM, sector beta benchmarks.
- Damodaran Online (NYU): ETF — Commodities sector WACC and beta benchmarks for cross-validation.
DCF models for other large-caps
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Author
Maya Chen, CFA
Chartered Financial Analyst
Independently reviewed
Dr. Aaron Pak, PhD
Doctor of Kinesiology & Public Health
Last reviewed: August 12, 2026 · Next scheduled review: quarterly
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Cross-checked against authoritative formulas (IRS, NIST, ACM) and updated for 2025/2026 tax years and rates.
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